Estimating the Net Effects of Migration and Remittances on Poverty and Inequality: Comparison of Fiji and Tonga

We use original 2005 household survey data from Fiji and Tonga to estimate the impact of migration and remittances on income distribution and measures of poverty, after controlling for selectivity in migration and endogeneity in the relationship between remittances and income. Measures of inequality and poverty based on actual, with-migration income and remittances are then compared with those based on a no-migration scenario. Counterfactual household incomes are estimated, taking account of what the migrant members would have earned had they not migrated. The results are compared with alternative income estimates in which remittances are treated simplistically as exogenous transfers. The positive effects of migration and remittances on poverty alleviation and income distribution are found to be stronger when the more rigorous, counterfactual income estimates are used.migration, remittances, income distribution, poverty, Fiji, Tonga

Impacts of International Migration and Remittances

We use original 2005 survey data from Fiji and Tonga on remittances and household income to estimate the combined impact of migration and remittances on the composition of household income. A two-stage methodology is followed. A variable for the predicted number of migrants in each household is generated to control for selectivity in migration. This variable is then used in a 3SLS remittances and income equation system. In neither country do we observe significant impacts on agricultural cash income, but, in relation to other income sources, including subsistence agriculture, wages and non-agricultural business activities, some significant and different effects are found, both positive and negative. These findings suggest that the duration and intensity of remittance-driven migration, and the structure of economic activity within a community are important in understanding the influences of migration and remittances on household resource allocation and production decisions and on the community�s economic transformation.

A Mixed-Motives Model of Private Transfers with Subjectively-Assessed Recipient Need: Evidence from a Poor, Transfer-Dependent Economy

We extend the mixed-motives model of transfer derivatives developed by Cox et al (2004) introducing subjectively-assessed recipient need in place of an absolute income threshold at which the donor’s dominant motive switches from altruism to exchange. This refinement provides a theoretically justifiable threshold amenable to empirical measurement. We test the extended model with customized survey data from Tonga and find evidence consistent with Cox et al in support of altruism for households below the threshold, but, we also find a positive, exchange-motivated relationship for those above the threshold. We conclude that either crowding-out or crowding-in of private transfers can occur when the recipient’s welfare improves, depending on the household’s pre-transfer welfare level. This also has implications for the distributional impact of private transfers and could explain why poverty reduction can be accompanied by increased income inequality.

Assessing the poverty impacts of remittances with alternative counterfactual income estimates

We estimate the impacts of remittances on poverty with survey data from Tonga, a poor Pacific island country highly dependent on international migrants’ remittances. The sensitivity of poverty impacts to estimation method is tested using two methods to estimate migrants’ counterfactual incomes; bootstrap prediction with self-selection testing and propensity score matching. We find consistency between the two methods, both showing a substantial reduction in the incidence and depth of poverty with migration and remittances. With further robustness checks there is strong evidence that the poorest households benefit from migrants’ remittances, and that increased migration opportunities can contribute to poverty alleviation.

Remittances and Subjective Welfare in a Mixed-Motives Model: Evidence from Fiji

To analyze migrants’ remittance motivations we extend the mixed-motives model of private transfers developed by Cox et al (2004), incorporating subjectively-assessed recipient welfare. We test the model with customized survey data from Fiji, finding evidence supportive of altruism for households below a subjective threshold level, indicating that international migrants’ remittances provide important social protection coverage to households where formal social protection systems are lacking.Unlike previous studies, we also find a positive, exchange-motivated relationship for those above the threshold. The conventional linear model applied to the same sample uncovers neither relationship. We conclude that either crowding-out or crowding-in of remittances can occur when recipients’ welfare improves, depending on the household’s pre-transfer welfare level. The net effects of recipients’ welfare improvements on remittances, and the effects of remittances on poverty alleviation and income distribution, are consequently more complex and ambiguous than previous studies suggest.

Wealthy and Healthy in the South Pacific

Objectives- The main aim of this paper is to analyse the relationship between socio-economic status and health status at the household level in Fiji, a developing country in the South Pacific, based on original household survey data compiled by the authors Method- We exploit the geographic conditions of Viti Levu, the relatively small main island of Fiji, to isolate the effects of household wealth on health. For households on this island physical distance is not a significant impediment for access to health care and other publicly-provided services. We use a constructed index of household wealth in place of the more commonly used income measure of socio-economic status. To control for reverse causality and other possible sources of endogeneity we use an Instrumental Variable strategy in the regression analysis. Findings- We find that a household’s socio-economic status, as measured by a constructed wealth index, has a substantial impact on the household’s health status. We estimate that if a household's wealth increased from the minimum to the maximum level, this would decrease its probability of being afflicted by an incapacitating illness by almost 50 per cent. Conclusions- Health outcomes from existing health services can therefore be improved by raising the economic well-being of poor households. Conversely, the provision of additional health services alone may not necessarily improve health outcomes for the poorest.

Genetic Sharing with Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors and Diabetes Reveals Novel Bone Mineral Density Loci.

Bone Mineral Density (BMD) is a highly heritable trait, but genome-wide association studies have identified few genetic risk factors. Epidemiological studies suggest associations between BMD and several traits and diseases, but the nature of the suggestive comorbidity is still unknown. We used a novel genetic pleiotropy-informed conditional False Discovery Rate (FDR) method to identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with BMD by leveraging cardiovascular disease (CVD) associated disorders and metabolic traits. By conditioning on SNPs associated with the CVD-related phenotypes, type 1 diabetes, type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, high density lipoprotein, low density lipoprotein, triglycerides and waist hip ratio, we identified 65 novel independent BMD loci (26 with femoral neck BMD and 47 with lumbar spine BMD) at conditional FDR < 0.01. Many of the loci were confirmed in genetic expression studies. Genes validated at the mRNA levels were characteristic for the osteoblast/osteocyte lineage, Wnt signaling pathway and bone metabolism. The results provide new insight into genetic mechanisms of variability in BMD, and a better understanding of the genetic underpinnings of clinical comorbidity

Risk profiles and one-year outcomes of patients with newly diagnosed atrial fibrillation in India: Insights from the GARFIELD-AF Registry.

BACKGROUND: The Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) is an ongoing prospective noninterventional registry, which is providing important information on the baseline characteristics, treatment patterns, and 1-year outcomes in patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). This report describes data from Indian patients recruited in this registry. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 52,014 patients with newly diagnosed AF were enrolled globally; of these, 1388 patients were recruited from 26 sites within India (2012-2016). In India, the mean age was 65.8 years at diagnosis of NVAF. Hypertension was the most prevalent risk factor for AF, present in 68.5% of patients from India and in 76.3% of patients globally (P < 0.001). Diabetes and coronary artery disease (CAD) were prevalent in 36.2% and 28.1% of patients as compared with global prevalence of 22.2% and 21.6%, respectively (P < 0.001 for both). Antiplatelet therapy was the most common antithrombotic treatment in India. With increasing stroke risk, however, patients were more likely to receive oral anticoagulant therapy [mainly vitamin K antagonist (VKA)], but average international normalized ratio (INR) was lower among Indian patients [median INR value 1.6 (interquartile range {IQR}: 1.3-2.3) versus 2.3 (IQR 1.8-2.8) (P < 0.001)]. Compared with other countries, patients from India had markedly higher rates of all-cause mortality [7.68 per 100 person-years (95% confidence interval 6.32-9.35) vs 4.34 (4.16-4.53), P < 0.0001], while rates of stroke/systemic embolism and major bleeding were lower after 1 year of follow-up. CONCLUSION: Compared to previously published registries from India, the GARFIELD-AF registry describes clinical profiles and outcomes in Indian patients with AF of a different etiology. The registry data show that compared to the rest of the world, Indian AF patients are younger in age and have more diabetes and CAD. Patients with a higher stroke risk are more likely to receive anticoagulation therapy with VKA but are underdosed compared with the global average in the GARFIELD-AF. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION-URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01090362

A Large-Scale Genetic Analysis Reveals a Strong Contribution of the HLA Class II Region to Giant Cell Arteritis Susceptibility

We conducted a large-scale genetic analysis on giant cell arteritis (GCA), a polygenic immune-mediated vasculitis. A case-control cohort, comprising 1,651 case subjects with GCA and 15,306 unrelated control subjects from six different countries of European ancestry, was genotyped by the Immunochip array. We also imputed HLA data with a previously validated imputation method to perform a more comprehensive analysis of this genomic region. The strongest association signals were observed in the HLA region, with rs477515 representing the highest peak (p = 4.05 × 10−40, OR = 1.73). A multivariate model including class II amino acids of HLA-DRβ1 and HLA-DQα1 and one class I amino acid of HLA-B explained most of the HLA association with GCA, consistent with previously reported associations of classical HLA alleles like HLA-DRB1∗04. An omnibus test on polymorphic amino acid positions highlighted DRβ1 13 (p = 4.08 × 10−43) and HLA-DQα1 47 (p = 4.02 × 10−46), 56, and 76 (both p = 1.84 × 10−45) as relevant positions for disease susceptibility. Outside the HLA region, the most significant loci included PTPN22 (rs2476601, p = 1.73 × 10−6, OR = 1.38), LRRC32 (rs10160518, p = 4.39 × 10−6, OR = 1.20), and REL (rs115674477, p = 1.10 × 10−5, OR = 1.63). Our study provides evidence of a strong contribution of HLA class I and II molecules to susceptibility to GCA. In the non-HLA region, we confirmed a key role for the functional PTPN22 rs2476601 variant and proposed other putative risk loci for GCA involved in Th1, Th17, and Treg cell function